| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | LONG | Mag-7 capital expenditure is hitting $761 billion this year, a 75% increase year-over-year. This massive spending is effectively a private-sector stimulus package that dwarfs government policy. This capital must flow somewhere—specifically to hardware, data centers, and productivity software. Long the mega-cap tech names spending the money and the semiconductor/infrastructure plays receiving it. ROI on AI spend disappoints, causing a rapid contraction in CapEx budgets. | ||
| Feb 10, 2026 | LONG | Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated January spending was up 5%. JPM explicitly stated on their call that after 12 quarters, there is still no sign of credit stress. The banks possess the "real" data (debit/credit flows) which contradicts the lagging/noisy government Retail Sales reports. If spending is up and credit quality is holding, banks are undervalued relative to the "recession" risk being priced in by bears. Long Money Center Banks as the most accurate reflection of economic health. Regulatory changes or a delayed wave of defaults in commercial real estate. |